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                              央行發布半年報頻提保持定力 釋放哪些信號?
                              2019-08-12 17:35 來源:新京報

                              原標題:央行發布半年報頻提保持定力 釋放哪些信號?

                              近日,央行官網發布了《2019年第二季度中國貨幣政策執行報告》(下稱《報告》),提及貨幣政策、貸款增速、人民幣匯率、接管包商銀行等諸多方面。

                              《報告》發布的這一時點,正值人民幣匯率“破7”,全球20余家央行接連打出降息牌以及國內中小金融機構流動性風險集中暴露的時期。新京報記者注意到,央行在半年報中,多次提到保持定力。其中,在總結二季度工作時提到“保持定力,有效應對國內外不確定因素影響”,對于當前經濟形勢,強調“堅定信心、保持定力,做好充分準備,認真辦好自己的事。”

                              關鍵詞1 貨幣政策

                              把好貨幣供給總閘門,不搞“大水漫灌”

                              《報告》稱,2019年上半年,在內外部環境復雜多變的情況下,央行繼續實施穩健貨幣政策,適時適度逆周期調節,綜合運用公開市場操作、存款準備金率、中期借貸便利、再貸款再貼現等多種政策工具,保持銀行體系流動性合理充裕,引導貨幣市場利率平穩運行。6月末,金融機構超額存款準備金率為2.0%,比上年末低0.4個百分點,比上年同期高0.2個百分點。

                              外部環境的變化之一,是今年全球“降息潮”。近三個月來,泰國、印度、新西蘭等超過20個國家的央行推出降息舉措。其中,美聯儲8月1日宣布將聯邦基金利率下調25個基點至2%~2.25%,這是美國自2008年12月16日后首次降息。

                              中國央行是否會跟進降息備受關注。對此,央行表示,下一階段穩健的貨幣政策要松緊適度,適時適度進行逆周期調節,把好貨幣供給總閘門,不搞“大水漫灌”,廣義貨幣M2和社會融資規模增速要與國內生產總值名義增速相匹配。這一定調與近日召開的中共中央政治局會議、央行2019年下半年工作電視會議保持一致。

                              新京報記者注意到,“適時適度進行逆周期調節”與前幾次貨幣政策執行報告有所不同。興業證券首席宏觀分析師王涵分析稱,去年四季度的貨幣政策執行報告,在“下一階段主要政策思路”中,強調的是“強化逆周期調節”,今年一季度強調的是“及時預調微調”,而此次的表態強調了“適時適度進行逆周期調節”,重點再次回到逆周期調節上。整體上來看,可能會通過一些貨幣政策工具來對沖國內經濟壓力。

                              《報告》專欄中,還提到針對全球經濟在中長期內保持中低速增長的可能性,要堅持以我為主,適當兼顧國際因素,在多目標中把握好綜合平衡適當兼顧國際因素,在多目標中把握好綜合平衡,保持定力,做好中長跑的打算。華爾街見聞首席經濟學家鄧海清認為,這意味著在當前中國宏觀經濟未出現明顯變化的情況下,貨幣政策不會簡單跟隨外圍央行轉向貨幣寬松(“短跑”),而是要考慮到全球經濟中低速增長的長期性,為未來可能出現的潛在風險預留政策空間(“中長跑”)。

                              而在銀根不松動的情況下,央行上半年已為小微企業連發了多個紅包。其中,《報告》提到,央行構建“三檔兩優”存款準備金政策新框架,擴大了普惠金融定向降準政策支持范圍。

                              關鍵詞2 匯率

                              人民幣對美元匯率,上半年近半交易日升值

                              8月5日,在岸人民幣匯率、離岸人民幣匯率雙雙“破7”,引發市場熱議。

                              《報告》也提到,8月以來,受國際經濟金融形勢、單邊主義和貿易保護主義措施及對中國加征關稅預期等影響,人民幣對美元有所貶值,突破了7元,反映了外匯供求和國際匯市的波動。

                              對此居民、企業和金融機構均理性、客觀看待,市場預期總體平穩,人民幣匯率繼續在合理均衡水平上保持基本穩定。

                              從上半年來看,《報告》稱,2019年以來,人民幣匯率以市場供求為基礎,參考一籃子貨幣匯率變化,有貶有升,雙向浮動,在合理均衡水平上保持了基本穩定。上半年人民幣對美元匯率中間價最高為6.6850元,最低為6.8994元,118個交易日中53個交易日升值、64個交易日貶值、1個交易日持平,最大單日升值幅度為0.70%(469點),最大單日貶值幅度為0.61%(414點)。

                              央行表示,下一步將穩步深化人民幣匯率市場化改革,完善以市場供求為基礎、參考一籃子貨幣進行調節、有管理的浮動匯率制度,保持人民幣匯率彈性,發揮匯率調節宏觀經濟和國際收支自動穩定器的作用。必要時加強宏觀審慎管理,穩定市場預期,保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定。加快發展外匯市場,堅持金融服務實體經濟的原則,為基于實需原則的進出口企業提供匯率風險管理服務。

                              事實上,在人民幣匯率“破7”后,央行和國家外匯管理局已連續發聲,表示對人民幣充滿信心。此外,今年2月、5月、6月,央行三次在港發行央行票據。

                              8月6日,央行宣布將于8月14日在港再發行300億央票。《報告》也提到,建立在香港發行中央銀行票據的常態機制,完善香港人民幣債券收益率曲線。

                              這是央行首次在貨幣政策執行報告中提出這一機制。業內人士分析稱,央行在離岸市場發行央票,可以回收離岸市場的人民幣,提高賣出人民幣的成本,有助于穩定人民幣匯率。

                              值得一提的是,8月6日,美國財政部將中國列為“匯率操縱國”。在剛剛過去的周末,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)發布中國年度第四條款磋商報告稱,盡管人民幣對美元貶值,但中國外匯儲備充足,沒有跡象表明中國實施了大規模外匯干預。

                              關鍵詞3 金融風險處置

                              包商銀行業務正常,將推動市場化改革重組

                              談及防范化解重大金融風險時,《報告》提到5月下旬接管包商銀行一事。《報告》稱,接管以來,包商銀行業務經營正常,各地網點秩序井然,未發生網點擠兌和群體性事件;包商銀行存量同業存單置換順利完成,同業業務逐步恢復正常,按照“新老劃斷”的思路,接管后的包商銀行成功發行6期同業存單;大額債權收購工作順利完成,最大限度保障了最廣大儲戶合法權益,平穩實現了嚴肅市場紀律、防范道德風險的政策目標;資金流出小于預期,輿情反映總體平穩,包商銀行接管托管的第一階段工作告一段落。央行將繼續會同有關部門穩妥有序做好包商銀行接管工作,在清產核資的基礎上,推動包商銀行市場化改革重組。

                              考慮到包商銀行被接管后市場情緒有所波動,加之臨近半年末市場預防性流動性需求有所增加,從5月下旬開始央行適當加大公開市場逆回購操作力度,并從6月中旬開始先后啟動28天期逆回購操作和14天期逆回購操作,滿足市場跨半年末流動性需求,平抑市場短期波動,為包括中小銀行和非銀機構在內的各類市場主體平穩度過半年末時點提供了適宜的流動性環境。

                              央行表示,下一階段將把握好處置風險的節奏和力度,及時化解中小金融機構流動性風險,堅決阻斷風險傳染和擴散,健全宏觀審慎管理,與金融微觀審慎監管、功能監管和行為監管形成合力,促進金融市場體系健康穩定運行。

                              “爭取到2020年,金融結構適應性提高,金融服務實體經濟能力明顯增強,金融工作法治化水平明顯提升,硬約束制度建設全面加強,系統性風險得到有效防控,為全面建成小康社會創造良好的金融環境。”央行稱。

                              鄧海清分析稱,這意味著既要避免市場恐慌帶來的“一刀切”式的非理性收縮,也要讓各類金融機構減少對同業業務的過度依賴,不能再走同業過度擴張和忽視風險管理的老路,做好自身流動性管理工作。

                              對于同業過度擴張和忽視風險管理的老路,鄧海清解釋稱,2014-2016年所有金融機構全面加杠桿,主動負債導致“資產荒”,依賴貨幣市場資金進行同業空轉和債券投資,市場一致性“加杠桿、加久期、降資質”,忽視投資的風險,而只追求收益。

                              鄧海清提醒,近期債市對貨幣寬松加碼的預期十分強烈,加杠桿、加久期的行為較為普遍,如果后續流動性出現波動,這些過度激進的投資行為將面臨巨大的流動性風險。

                              貨幣供應量和社會融資

                              規模適度增長

                              6月末,廣義貨幣供應量M2余額為192.1萬億元,同比增長8.5%,增速比上年末高0.4個百分點。

                              狹義貨幣供應量M1余額56.8萬億元,同比增長4.4%。

                              流通中貨幣M0余額7.3萬億元,同比增長4.3%。

                              人民幣匯率升值

                              根據國際清算銀行的計算,上半年人民幣名義有效匯率貶值0.22%,實際有效匯率貶值0.54%。

                              2005年人民幣匯率形成機制改革直至2019年6月,人民幣名義有效匯率升值31.53%,實際有效匯率升值41.69%。

                              普惠金融持續加碼

                              上半年,普惠小微貸款新增1.2萬億元,同比多增6478億元,6月末余額增速為22.5%,較上年末提高7.3個百分點,高于同期全部貸款增速9.5個百分點。

                              貨幣市場利率平穩

                              第二季度,公開市場7天期逆回購操作利率保持在2.55%。

                              銀行間市場存款類機構以利率債為質押的7天期回購利率(DR007)在合理水平平穩運行,6月末DR007為2.56%,較上年同期低45個基點。

                              作者:程維妙 侯潤芳 編輯:胡韻妍 責任編輯:鄧靜)
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